Introduction – Strike and Counter-Strike:
Consult this article for an introduction to the conflict.
Note: This is just a quick article designed to provide an update as of 0140hrs IST, 09/05/2025.
The nights following India’s opening salvos (i.e. its missile and drone strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Jammu Kashmir) have been hot with activity, gunfire and air raids. On the night of the 7/8th, Pakistan attempted to hit Indian military units with drones and cruise missiles. Following that, in the day on the 8th, the Indian Air Force conducted a number of raids across multiple Pakistani cities. According to footage, the IAF’s IAI Harop suicide drones (as well as, likely, Indian Army Warmate Loitering Munitions) plunged into Pakistani air defence positions in Lahore and Karachi, as well as into the premises of the Pakistan GHQ in Rawalpindi. At Lahore, hits were independently confirmed on the positions of 133 Air Defence Unit, who are said to have lost one radar and 4 men wounded.
Following that, Pakistan launched a massive wave of drones at Indian military installations in Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan and Gujarat. One hit was confirmed in Jahalandar, Rajasthan (evidence and evidence) with a few more rumoured in Anantnag, Kashmir (evidence). Indian air defence gunners put up a hell of a fight (example and example), turning the sky red and orange. It is believed this attack was carried out by using a mix of dumb rockets, missiles and drones. Pakistan denied any involvement, via the nation’s Federal Minister for Information.
The Indian External Affairs Minister, the much-storied Jaishankar, put out two statements saying that India will respond to any Pakistani provocation.
So the question remains – what now?
But First – Disinformation!
Following the first night, the internet has been rife with lies, misinformation, disinformation, propaganda and just simple misunderstandings. Going forward, it is a good rule of thumb to assume that 90% of what you see online is fake, 5% is mistaken and maybe 5% is genuine. If you are consulting Indian or Pakistani mainstream media, it is fair to say that nearly 100% is fake!
For example, following the Pakistani attack on India today evening, people began claiming that the Indian Navy had struck Karachi. As the venerable Mohammed Zubair pointed out, that was lies! Pakistani misinformation and disinformation has also been equally appalling – and in some cases, just outright worse. For example, they claimed to have destroyed an Indian S-400 system, while using photos from a similar system destroyed in Ukraine. That is to say nothing of the cloud of lies and myth that surrounds potential IAF and PAF aircraft losses on the night of the 6/7th (a detailed article on that misinformation is being worked on). [as a note, I am using Zubair because he has already done the work and so I need not spend precious words and space here doing the same!]
So, going forward – do not trust and always verify!
What next?
It is both hard to say while being easy to predict. First, here are a couple things we need to remember.
- On the 8th, India conducted what is known as a SEAD Operation – Suppression of Enemy Air Defence
- Pakistani attacks in the night are also likely attempts at SEAD
- The Indian government has confirmed they will keep responding as long as Pakistan keeps attacking
- The Pakistan government has sworn revenge and not gotten it in any palpable way
- There is no clear path to de-escalate for either nation without saving face
So what will happen? For now, I think it is safe to say, an Indian counterattack is likely and it will also likely be from the stand-off range. But what then? Ground war? Total war? Nuclear war?
Well – likely, possible but improbable, not on your life.
Regardless – it is only 0140hrs in India at time of writing. There is a long night ahead.
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