Introduction:
This past week has certainly been something of a decade – Trump has further undermined (to put it mildly) the foundations of American democracy and rule of law, the Russians and Ukrainians seem to be getting closer to a peace, China has announced trade deals with nearly every country on earth (hyperbole, of course), and then there was the Indian subcontinent.
Following the Pahalgam Attack on the 22nd of April, in which 26 tourists were gunned down by a Pakistan-based terror group (the imaginatively named “The Resistance Front”, a ‘subsidiary’ of Lashkar-e-Taiba), tensions between India and Pakistan have shot through the roof. And yet – nothing has happened. India has sworn revenge, a number of countries around the world have said they’ll support India. Pakistan has claimed innocence and has raised alarms – multiple times – about an imminent Indian “incursion”.
And yet, a week has passed, and nothing has happened. Or has it?
The on-and-off Indo-Pak conflict in the 21st Century has earned the moniker, over the past week, “the nothing-ever-happens-conflict”. However, this may not necessarily be the case. And though not even a single body has hit the floor – proverbially speaking – since the terrorist attack, some unprecedented things have happened and others… well, we shall have to wait and see. In this article, we will unpack the Nothing-Ever-Happens-Conflict.
2014 to 2021 – A New Era of Skirmishing
The dawn of a new Indian government – a government still in power – brought with it renewed hostilities with Pakistan. Between 2014 and 2021, Indian and Pakistani forces clashed nearly everyday for months on end along the Line of Control in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. They also, sometimes, exchanged small arms fire alongside the official international border. What sparked the fighting in 2014?
Well, to quote a certain Captain Edmund Blackadder, it seemed like too much effort not to fight.
This fighting was exacerbated in 2016 and 2019 – both times after extremely lethal terrorist attacks in Kashmir. The first, known as the Uri attack, saw 4 terrorists from the Jaish-e-Mohammad attacked an Indian Brigade Headquarters at dawn and, while most were sleeping, killed 19 soldiers. The second, the 14th February 2019 Pulwama attack, saw a terrorist from JeM plunge a VBIED into a police convoy, killing 40 policemen. Following both attacks, India responded with some considerable spectacle.
In 2016, the Indian Army mounted a raid. Operators from the 4th and 9th Battalion of the Parachute Regiment (better known as ParaSF), snuck into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and destroyed 3 JeM camps. That is, in itself, not a spectacle. As many veterans of the conflict have confirmed, such operations were common-place – most notably in the 90s – and were not, by the fact of their existence, items of spectacle. What made them so was the fact that the BJP chose to publicise it as never had been done before. News channels across the country, and across the spectrum of languages spoken in India, played that grainy footage, and Pakistan’s response to it, on repeat. The publicization of the operation was a sign that India will no longer take such attacks lying down.
Then Pulwama happened and this time, the response was the spectacle. For the first time nearly 50 years, the Indian Air Force released bombs over Pakistan proper. While the IAF had bombed Pakistani positions in the Kargil War (1999) and during Operation Parakram (2001-02), they had not bombed inside of Pakistan’s internationally recognised territory since the 1971 India-Pakistan War. This time, Mirage-2000s escorted by Su-30 MKIs bombed JeM camps well inside Pakistan. While the efficacy of this raid – and the outcome of the dogfight that followed – may be questioned by some, a fact remains. This was a step up on the escalation ladder – another signal to Pakistan, that there better not be another attack.
And for a while, there wasn’t. In fact, Pakistan and India agreed to a ceasefire on the 21st of February 2021 and what followed was 4 years of relative peace in Kashmir. In that whole time, the ceasefire was only broken twice.
Then, Pahalgam happened.
The Indus Waters Treaty and Its Abeyance:
One of the first things that India did after the Pahalgam attacks was suspend the Indus Waters Treaty. This, in and of itself, was a massive step. The IWT governs the control of the waters of the Indus River, which is, in many ways, the lifeblood of Pakistan. Unfortunately, the current geographical realities on the ground mean that the Indus and all her tributaries flow through India and so, to prevent any water war, the two governments signed the IWT in 1960.
Long story short – India shall not dam the river in such a way that it obstructs or diverts the flow of the Indus and India shall not interfere with 3 tributaries which flow to the Indus. These 3 tributary rivers were, despite being in Indian territory, under Pakistan’s jurisdiction (as regards the use of their water). Though India has dammed the 3 tributaries it can, it has never once attempted to impede the flow of the Indus.
Between 1960 and 2025, India and Pakistan have fought 3 all out wars and dozens of small conflicts. India had not considered suspending the IWT even then. And now, just hours after the attack, the IWT is suspended. Within a day, all dams were shut. Days after that, they were opened entirely without warning – flooding the river. This pattern continues.
The Pakistani MoD said it will consider this to be an act of war.
And yet… nothing.
But again, not quite.
Every day since the attack, Indian and Pakistani forces have been engaging each other – most prominently during the night – all along the Line of Control. Now, the old battlefield of Sialkot has also been shelled by Indian artillery. Both sides have launched extensive CAP, the Pakistan Army has mobilised its I and XXX Corps and the Indian Army has been spotted to be shuffling its own mechanised formations. The Indian Navy has maintained at least 1 carrier off the coast of Pakistan and has engaged in 3 live fire drills since the 23rd of April – one of them just 85 nautical miles from Karachi.
In the intervening days, Pakistan has shouted from the rooftops that an Indian attack – the form and shape unknown – is imminent. And yet… nothing. Aside from the exchange of fire along the LoC and IB – which is all but routine, and has been since the 60s – there has been… nothing. In fact, at one point, the Prime Minister’s Cabinet called an emergency press conference. The room was packed. The topic? Sugar cane pricing control legislation.
And yet… something. Not a day goes by that the Indian government doesn’t promise retribution. Not a day goes by that Pakistan doesn’t claim an imminent attack. And this time, there is something… different. Unlike in 2016 and 2019, the Indian government has issued a gag order – no one is allowed to film troop movements, no matter how public they may be. Media and news channels have had their privileges cut back slightly – though some, handpicked, can still broadcast from army positions. In New Delhi, there have been constant meetings of the defence establishment – with civilian and military bigwigs in constant talks.
Perhaps most telling, PM Modi and President Murmu have cancelled all travel for the first two weeks of May.
Will something happen?
To put it bluntly – something has to happen. The message given in 2016 was a warning shot and in 2019, a flesh wound. What now? The IWT suspension? That doesn’t make sense – why target Pakistani farmers? Furthermore, Modi has been at pains to say that the “perpetrators” of the attack will be punished – he has personally said this almost every day since the attack. By this, he certainly means the gunmen who pulled the triggers but also those who orchestrated it. Suspending the IWT doesn’t achieve that.
So what now?
Well, something will happen. It has to. And, to once again call upon Captain Blackadder, it’s too much of an effort for it not to.
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